Political Ponderings: Two Economists as New York GOP Senate Candidates – Anyone, Anyone?

by Raymond J. Keating

March 10, 2010

When it comes to serious candidates for U.S. Senate races this year, New York Republicans resemble zoned-out high school students from the movie “Ferris Bueller’s Day Off.”

Who can forget the scene? Ben Stein as an economics teacher asking if “anyone, anyone” knew anything about the Smoot-Hawley tariff act or the Laffer Curve? The students respond with vacant stares. One drools with his head down on a desk.

Is there anyone, anyone able to run a substantive campaign against Senator Kirsten Gillibrand? Or, is anyone, anyone around to give Senator Chuck Schumer, also up for re-election in November, a serious challenge? Anyone?

Before writing off these seats in a very Blue State, consider the mess that Democrats are in nationally, including in other Blue States.

A late February Rasmussen Reports poll showed that Republicans led Democrats on the generic congressional ballot by 44%-35%, compared to the Democrats’ leading 42%-36% in early 2009.

Another Rasmussen poll released on March 1 found that, compared to a year ago, both parties experienced a drop off in party affiliation among voters. But for Republicans, it was slight – from 33.6% to 32.1% -- while Democrats declined from 40.8% in February 2009 to 35.1% last month. Meanwhile, President Barack Obama continues to suffer poor approval ratings.

And Senate races are competitive in states where few would expect.

Consider very liberal California. Senator Barbara Boxer apparently is in for a tight race against any of the Republicans looking to challenge her – former U.S. Rep. Tom Campbell, businesswoman Carly Fiorina, or State Assemblyman Chuck Devore. Previously, Boxer had been steadily widening her margins of victory – five percentage points in 1992, 10 points in 1998 and 20 points in 2004.

As for the President’s former Senate seat in Illinois, the polls indicate a tight race between State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, the Democrat, and Republican Congressman Mark Kirk.

In the Delaware race for Vice President Joe Biden’s old seat, Republican Congressman Mike Castle holds a big lead over a county level Democrat who entered the race after Biden’s son, Beau, decided not to run.

In addition, Pennsylvania’s former-Republican, now-Democratic Senator Arlen Specter – if he wins a primary – will be opposed by former Congressman Pat Toomey, a conservative Republican. Specter looks like he is in big trouble.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat, also appears ready to go down.

Keep in mind that Obama won California 61%-37%, Illinois 62%-37%, Delaware 62%-37%, Pennsylvania 55%-44%, and Nevada 55%-43%.

So, what about New York, where Obama won 63%-36%?

Gillibrand is vulnerable as a flip-flopping appointee of a now-disgraced governor, and a puppet of Schumer. At the same time, the once-powerhouse Schumer saw his approval rating dip below 50% -- to 47% -- for the first time nine years in a Marist Poll released in early February.

But no formidable Republicans have stepped up to try to pick off Gillibrand. Bruce Blakeman, a former Nassau County legislator, is in the race. Also pondering runs are Dan Senor, a former aid to President George W. Bush; and Joseph DioGuardi, a former Westchester County congressman. Not exactly a gripping field. Some Republicans were probably hoping that wealthy publisher Mort Zuckerman would jump in, even though he was not a Republican.

As for opposing Schumer, no Republican is in the race right now.

Do New York Republicans have any hope?

Some hoped that a team of top economists would run for these Senate seats. Economist David Malpass appears ready to jump in the Gillibrand race. And fellow economist and television host Larry Kudlow reportedly had been mulling the idea of taking on Schumer – or at least, some were pushing that idea.

Both Malpass and Kudlow were advisers in the Reagan administration. They understand how the economy works – a nice contrast to both Gillibrand and Schumer (and most other New York elected officials, unfortunately) – as well as being able to communicate clearly and convincingly why New York and the nation need tax and regulatory relief to spur entrepreneurship, investment, innovation, economic growth and job creation.

Malpass and Kudlow would serve as the ideal cures for the bad policy and atrocious economic ideas that prevail in the once-Empire State.

Imagine smart, articulate, clear-thinking economists running for two Senate seats in New York? Alas, though, it appears that Kudlow appears not to be interested. Human Events reported on March 5:

“I’m very flattered by all the attention and quite frankly surprised at the size of the draft movement which has developed. So it has my attention,” the CNBC host and weekday anchor, and former Reagan administration economist told Human Events.

“But, and this is a very important thing, and from the heart, I love my work at CNBC. I just love it. And that’s the reason why I have no plans to run for the Senate at the present time,” Kudlow said in an interview.

“The network has been great for me. It’s a second career and it’s gone very well with God’s grace. Frankly, that’s a major impediment to any political campaigning,” he said.

That’s not an absolute “never,” but chances obviously are slim of a Kudlow challenge to Schumer.

If a miracle of sound economics winning out over misguided, lefty New York politics could ever happen, however, 2010 would seem like the best opportunity. Anyone, anyone?

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Raymond J. Keating is the publisher and editor of Keating Reports and the Long Island Sentinel. He can be reached at keatingreports@aol.com.

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