Commentary: GOP-Tea Party Train Wreck Coming?

by John LeBoutillier

September 13, 2010

This year’s elections are going to be a smash success for the GOP – and for conservatives and for traditional small-government, lower-tax conservatism – and especially for the Tea Party movement.

Emphasis should be placed on the word “movement” because the Tea Party is not a political party. At least not yet.

It is not the 1992 Reform Party of Ross Perot with a place on the ballot in most states. That Reform Party took votes away from the GOP and was responsible for electing Bill Clinton as President – twice (1992, 1996). 



But the Tea Party in 2010 is simultaneously at war with the GOP Establishment and helping the GOP versus the Obama-Pelosi-Reid Democrats this fall.

The Tea Party movement has entered GOP primaries and caucuses and defeated the establishment seven times – most notably Utah, Nevada, Kentucky, Florida, Alaska – and are trying it yet again in Delaware on September 14th. 



This movement has nowhere to go in November except to vote for Republicans. It is the energy that will power the Republican to an incredible victory on November 2, 2010.

But there is a much bigger story lurking here: this alliance between the Tea Party Movement and the GOP may evolve into an all-out, gut-ripping civil war in the 2012 GOP Presidential primaries and caucuses that could help re-elect President Obama.

Here is how that might play out: If Sarah Palin were to run for President in 2012, she would take all the Tea Party energy into Iowa and South Carolina and other early states. She might very well win those early contests.

While she and the Tea Party Movement are riding high, she/they will not be warmly embraced by the GOP Establishment. They are deathly afraid of this outside movement taking over their cherished party. In fact, there are some Establishment Republicans who would prefer to lose an election with one of their own candidates than win with an outsider, who they cannot control.

In 2012, the GOP will run two simultaneous primaries: A) A Tea Party/anti-Establishment race to find their candidate, especially if Palin does not run; and B) The GOP Establishment will run a separate race to find their candidate to stop the Tea Party/Outside candidate. This is because there is not a candidate who can bridge the differences between these two camps. Reagan could do it – and did it in 1980 after the GOP Establishment (Ford) bitterly opposed him in 1976.

But none of today’s present GOPers can have a foot in each camp and have the other camp accept them. Gingrich thinks he can. But he is un-electable in November and has so many problems surrounding him (ego, marriages, hypocrisy) that in the end neither camp will accept him.

Thus, the inevitable train wreck. And the possibility that a bitter divide between the GOP Establishment and the Tea Party Movement may very well allow a weak President Obama to be re-elected.

None of this is being talked about today. Instead, all eyes and hopes are on the inevitable GOP gains on November 2. 

However, these midterms are the signpost of what is to come in 2012. Sadly for conservatives who want to defeat Obama, that year may not be as happy as this one.

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John LeBoutillier is a former member of Congress from Long Island, and is the author of Harvard Hates America.