Commentary: Predictions for 2011

by John LeBoutillier

January 4, 2011

• By the end of the year, the unemployment rate will still be unacceptably too high – in the 8 - 8.5% range. And that will turn the country even more sour about the economy, the future and the 2012 elections. 



• Articles will appear asking this question: Has any incumbent president ever been re-elected with unemployment north of 7% or 8%?



• While President Obama will not have a Democratic Party challenger, he will be viewed as beatable in November 2012. The Upper Mid-West – from Ohio to Minnesota – all states he won in 2008 – will now be against him and his Electoral College math will be difficult.



• Both parties are going to be viewed negatively by the end of 2011 precisely because the economy continues to flounder.



• GOP control of the House will cause a split inside the Republicans between Tea Party conservatives who want to address the National Debt and regular Republicans who want to cut more taxes to stimulate the economy.



• Sarah Palin will continue to dominate the talk of the GOP race for the presidential nomination. She will continue to prevent any other new “star” to emerge from the pack.



• By the end of 2011 no Republican will have emerged as the favorite for the GOP presidential nomination. Sarah Palin will still be the most talked-about Republican candidate. She will have catchy one-liners at the TV debates, which begin in June. There will be eight white guys – and Palin – up on the stage – and she will dominate the news of these debates.



• Instead, there will – again – be a flavor du jour – a new, hot, favorite candidate, each of whom lasts for a week or two only to fade and be replaced by the next faddish wave.



• A Big Fight will be over the extension of the debt ceiling. This has to be voted on by the House and Senate. The establishment is already saying to the new Tea Party elected conservatives, “You have to vote to extend the debt ceiling!” And these Tea Party-backed new Senators and Congressmen are replying, “I did NOT come here to run up more debt!!!” So look out for an explosion over this by spring. 



• Cathleen Parker doesn’t make it to March 1 on CNN’s Parker/Spitzer. And the show itself – so dreadful you cannot watch it – doesn’t last past May 1. And if it does last longer it is only because everything on that network is unwatchable.



• The Big Scandal – written about in this space a few years ago – is still simmering. This is a scandal bigger than Watergate. It envelopes both major political parties. There will be progress in 2011 in blowing this open. And if it does blow, it will severely alter the 2012 presidential race.

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John LeBoutillier is a former member of Congress from Long Island, and is the author of Harvard Hates America.